Eden Pack

$150.00 / pull
1,898 LISTED
Buyback-net per pull −$10.95 instant-sell value minus price
Price$150.00
Pub. EV$154.50
Gross-net+$4.50
buyback90%
avg FMV$394.04
pool1,898
cadenceactive
Card lifecycle one loop: pulls → buyback → re-pull · rares leave → restock → odds drift
WHERE PULLS GO on-chain fate of each pulled card

Of 1,493 tracked pulls, 99.3% went straight back to the vault (buyback).

Instant buyback (≤10 min) 83.8% 1,251
Later buyback 15.5% 231
non-tracked-VM hop (may include unlisted buyback) 0% 0
Still held 0.7% 11
Redeemed (burned) 0% 0

Median time from pull to next move: 3 min.

Every Renaiss pack runs the same loop: common cards (~1× price) are bought back and re-pulled endlessly, while rares get kept — they leave the pool. On-chain, the cards that exit carry far higher FMV (leavers median ~$260, 57% jackpots) than the ones that recirculate (~$51, 1.7%). The operator restocks rares, and that tug-of-war is the published-odds drift.

On-chain, from the Registry contract. Non-tracked-VM destinations can be contracts (routers / marketplaces) or an as-yet-unlisted buyback VM, not necessarily resale wallets. Estimates, not advice.

Published odds held one value over the last 72h (407 checks): crown 0.5% · bloom 33% · thorn 66%.

Pool right now: 81.5% common / 18.5% rare, from 1,898 cards in the vault · published draw odds put the common tier at 66%

Draw oddspublished odds · operator-asserted

thorn · 66% — most pulls land here; typical pull ≈ $266.00, over the $150.00 price

crown 0.5%bloom 33%thorn 66%

Value distribution EV is a mean — this is the shape behind it

Pool all card FMVs · n=1,898
LOTTERY
price $150.00 median $141.00 mean $394.04

Median far below mean: a LOTTERY pack — most pulls land near the median; the mean is carried by a thin, high-value tail.

illustrative bins · derived from published odds
Outcome what you'll actually pull (odds-weighted; shape estimated from the current pool)
LOTTERY

$266.00 typical pull vs $154.50 expected value.

Odds-weighted, this is a LOTTERY pull — most pulls land near the median; the mean is carried by a thin, high-value tail.

Streak check is a bad run “due” for a hit?
Independent draws — no pity system

103 pulls · 26 buyers analyzed on-chain. The hit-rate (FMV ≥ 2× price) stays flat regardless of the prior trash streak — trend-test p=0.40, and the pull order is consistent with random.

prior trash streak before the pull →

So “I've stacked trash, I'm due” is the gambler's fallacy here: every pull is at the published odds, streak or not.

small sample — directional only · On-chain pull outcomes over one window; the draw itself is off-chain. Estimates, not advice.

What's in the machine top remaining cards — what's left, not a guarantee sorted by FMV · slab photos via blob host
diamond 81 avg $3,122.53 golden 191 avg $1,264.63 plain 1547 avg $160.01 silver 79 avg $74.47
🂠 image n/a
cert BGS0015482309 Graded slab: #OP01025 Roronoa Zoro SR PAR/(2023 Flagship Battle May/June Winner) CHASE diamond ×10
#OP01025 Roronoa Zoro SR PAR/(2023 Flagship Battle May/June Winner)
$4,242.00 ×10
🂠 image n/a
cert BGS0015131607 Graded slab: #ST01006 Tony Tony Chopper C ALT ART/(Best 8 Souvenir) golden ×10
#ST01006 Tony Tony Chopper C ALT ART/(Best 8 Souvenir)
$1,979.00 ×10
🂠 image n/a
cert BGS0015525237 Graded slab: #OP02013 Portgas.D.Ace ALT ART SR ×3
#OP02013 Portgas.D.Ace ALT ART SR
$495.00 ×3
🂠 image n/a
cert BGS0017037310 Graded slab: #ST01013 Roronoa Zoro P/(Gift Collection 2023) ×2
#ST01013 Roronoa Zoro P/(Gift Collection 2023)
$495.00 ×2
🂠 image n/a
cert PSA85682060 Graded slab: Standard Battle Winner #007 Nami ×5
Standard Battle Winner #007 Nami
$488.00 ×5
🂠 image n/a
cert BGS0015525232 Graded slab: Alternate Art #036 Nami silver
Alternate Art #036 Nami
$269.00

what remains in the pool right now — availability changes with every pull · card names link to Renaiss

EV vs. pool average uPlot · 24h

Expected pull (real) Pool avg (marketing)

Inventory uPlot · 24h

wallet_count